Speaker: Zhang Jun (Fudan University)
Moderator: Yuan Jianhong, Liu Xiuyan (Southeast University)
Time: 3:00-5:00 pm, Beijing Time
Date: May 28th, 2022
Tencent Meeting ID: 969-161-047
Abstract:
The World Input-Output Table (WIOD-SEA) and the annual provincial data of the National Bureau of Statistics both show that China's labor income share has changed from falling to rising after 2007. Considering that various shocks will affect the share of labor compensation in China from falling to rising, it is necessary to construct a dynamic general equilibrium model and incorporate six types of shocks, including sectoral total factor productivity, trade costs, sectoral investment, aggregate demand, labor supply, and technological progress. Then, the first theorem of welfare economics and the dynamic "hat algorithm" (Dynamic Hat Algebra) can be used to solve the equilibrium. The model-fitting results show that among the six shocks, only the technological progress of capital relative to labor increases rapidly in the same period, and the elasticity of substitution is less than 1. The result indicates that the technological progress of capital-enhancing is faster than that of labor-enhancing, resulting in the continuous increase of the marginal product of labor, thus the share of labor compensation will increase. This shock has 70% explanatory power. At the same time, it is found that more than 90% of the explanatory power of the change in labor compensation share after 2007 comes from the internal department. Finally, when controlling all shock levels to 2017, the model also predicts that China's labor compensation share will reach 59.8% in 2035.
About speaker:
Zhang Jun is an economist, a Distinguished Professor of the “Changjiang Scholars” of the Ministry of Education. He is currently a senior professor of liberal arts, dean of the School of Economics, and director of the China Economic Research Center at Fudan University. He serves as a member of the 8th Academic Degrees Committee of the State Council, the Co-Convener of Theoretical Economics, the Deputy Director of the National College Economics Teaching Guidance Committee of the Ministry of Education, the Deputy Director of the Fudan University Degree Evaluation Committee and the Director of the Department of Social Sciences and Management, and concurrently serves as Shanghai Economics Vice President of the Society, Director of China Economic and Social Council, etc. He used to serve as a member of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee Decision Advisory Committee, and a Special Consulting Researcher of the Central Committee for Democratic Progress. In 2015, he was awarded the title of Shanghai Advanced Worker. In October 2015, he won the 7th China Economic Theory Innovation Award with Lin Yifu and Fan Gangyi. In 2018, he won the Bergson Prize for the best paper from the American Society for Comparative Economics (CES). In November 2020, he was awarded the title of "Influential Person of the Year" - "Economist of the Year" by China News Weekly.
翻译：王宣予
审校：李昭廷
